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He survives the landing, but unfortunately at precisely that moment the building is blown up by Al Qaeda.His charred corpse is flung into the street nearby.They argue that the good a doctor does by treating illnesses is minimal compared to the good she can do by earning to give.Their reasoning goes like this: the average doctor saves 4 QALYs a year through medical interventions.But if the former’s true, it’s a brilliant donation, and you’ve saved an expected 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 lives.I don’t have any faith that we understand these risks with enough precision to tell if an AI risk charity can cut our odds of doom by 0.00000000000000001 or by only 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001.As the rubble settles, his face is covered by a stray sheet of newspaper; the headline reads 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ENDS WITH TRUMP AND SANDERS IN PERFECT TIE.In small print near the bottom it also lists the winning Powerball numbers, which perfectly match those on a lottery ticket in the researcher’s pocket.

Maybe giving

Maybe giving $1,000 to the Machine Intelligence Research Institute will reduce the probability of AI killing us all by 0.00000000000000001.

He writes – and I am editing liberally to keep it short, so be sure to read the whole thing: Nick Bostrom — the Oxford philosopher who popularized the concept of existential risk — estimates that about 10^54 human life-years (or 10^52 lives of 100 years each) could be in our future if we both master travel between solar systems and figure out how to emulate human brains in computers.

Even if we give this 10^54 estimate “a mere 1% chance of being correct,” Bostrom writes, “we find that the expected value of reducing existential risk by a mere one billionth of one billionth of one percentage point is worth a hundred billion times as much as a billion human lives.” Put another way: The number of future humans who will never exist if humans go extinct is so great that reducing the risk of extinction by 0.00000000000000001 percent can be expected to save 100 billion more lives than, say, preventing the genocide of 1 billion people.

And yet for the argument to work, you need to be able to make those kinds of distinctions.

Matthews correctly notes that this argument – often called “Pascal’s Wager” or “Pascal’s Mugging” – is on very shaky philosophical ground.

The value of the earning to give is so much higher then the value of the actual doctoring that you might as well skip the doctoring entirely and go into whatever earns you the most money. That’s something where you’re saving lots of lives, so it must be a good altruistic career choice.” But then when you pull numbers out of your ass, it turns out not to be.

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Maybe giving $1,000 to the Machine Intelligence Research Institute will reduce the probability of AI killing us all by 0.00000000000000001.He writes – and I am editing liberally to keep it short, so be sure to read the whole thing: Nick Bostrom — the Oxford philosopher who popularized the concept of existential risk — estimates that about 10^54 human life-years (or 10^52 lives of 100 years each) could be in our future if we both master travel between solar systems and figure out how to emulate human brains in computers.Even if we give this 10^54 estimate “a mere 1% chance of being correct,” Bostrom writes, “we find that the expected value of reducing existential risk by a mere one billionth of one billionth of one percentage point is worth a hundred billion times as much as a billion human lives.” Put another way: The number of future humans who will never exist if humans go extinct is so great that reducing the risk of extinction by 0.00000000000000001 percent can be expected to save 100 billion more lives than, say, preventing the genocide of 1 billion people.And yet for the argument to work, you need to be able to make those kinds of distinctions.Matthews correctly notes that this argument – often called “Pascal’s Wager” or “Pascal’s Mugging” – is on very shaky philosophical ground.The value of the earning to give is so much higher then the value of the actual doctoring that you might as well skip the doctoring entirely and go into whatever earns you the most money. That’s something where you’re saving lots of lives, so it must be a good altruistic career choice.” But then when you pull numbers out of your ass, it turns out not to be.

,000 to the Machine Intelligence Research Institute will reduce the probability of AI killing us all by 0.00000000000000001.He writes – and I am editing liberally to keep it short, so be sure to read the whole thing: Nick Bostrom — the Oxford philosopher who popularized the concept of existential risk — estimates that about 10^54 human life-years (or 10^52 lives of 100 years each) could be in our future if we both master travel between solar systems and figure out how to emulate human brains in computers.Even if we give this 10^54 estimate “a mere 1% chance of being correct,” Bostrom writes, “we find that the expected value of reducing existential risk by a mere one billionth of one billionth of one percentage point is worth a hundred billion times as much as a billion human lives.” Put another way: The number of future humans who will never exist if humans go extinct is so great that reducing the risk of extinction by 0.00000000000000001 percent can be expected to save 100 billion more lives than, say, preventing the genocide of 1 billion people.And yet for the argument to work, you need to be able to make those kinds of distinctions.Matthews correctly notes that this argument – often called “Pascal’s Wager” or “Pascal’s Mugging” – is on very shaky philosophical ground.The value of the earning to give is so much higher then the value of the actual doctoring that you might as well skip the doctoring entirely and go into whatever earns you the most money. That’s something where you’re saving lots of lives, so it must be a good altruistic career choice.” But then when you pull numbers out of your ass, it turns out not to be.

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